Philippines to reach 390,000 coronavirus cases by end-Oct: analyst

Gillan Ropero, ABS-CBN News

Posted at Oct 14 2020 10:17 AM

MANILA - The Philippines is on its "way to recovery" from the COVID-19 pandemic as daily new cases in the capital region decline, an analyst said Wednesday.

The country will reach some 390,000 cases by end of the month, Professor Guido David, member of the OCTA Research Group analyzing coronavirus data in the country, told ANC's Headstart.

"This is not supposed to be alarming because we’re still getting mga (some) 2,000 cases per day but we’re seeing the trend is decreasing," he said.

Daily COVID-19 cases could decline to 500 to 600 by end of the month if quarantine measures remain as the current daily average is around 900 cases, David said in a separate interview with ABS-CBN's Teleradyo.

"And by end of November, baka mga 200-300. That is a lot more manageable. Kung mapapababa natin ang cases natin to that level, mas madali nang magreopen ng economy," he said.

(And by end of number it could be 200 to 300 cases. That is a lot more manageable if we can decrease cases to that level, it's easier to reopen the economy.)

"We’re on our way to recovery, although mataas ang kaso (the number of cases is high) we’re getting less than 1,000 cases per day on average."

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There has been a "significant decrease in trend" in Metro Manila, David said, citing a positivity rate of 8 percent from a peak of 70 percent and a reproduction number of less than 1.

"We’re just saying we should still be careful in Metro Manila but at the same time the trends are positive and showing that we’re on a downward trajectory," he said.

"The pandemic is getting better and better in Metro Manila," he added.

Any transition to ease quarantine measures should be "gradual," David said.

"This is already a more relaxed GCQ (general community quarantine) bagamat di pa siya MGCQ (modified GCQ). MGCQ, I believe, will involve a lot of mass gathering so we should be a bit more careful before we move to MCGQ. Any move should be very gradual," he said.

The Philippines as of Tuesday reported 344,713 cases of COVID-19, with 293,383 recoveries and 6,372 deaths.