MANILA - Metro Manila's modified lockdown has slowed COVID-19 transmission in the past week, an analyst said Monday.
The lockdown will "most likely" be lifted as the Philippine capital region's trend improved with a virus reproduction rate of between 1.1 to 1.2 from 1.5, according to Dr. Guido David of the University of the Philippines Institute of Mathematics.
"Positive itong trend natin the past week na bumabagal ang transmission. We’re actually optimistic," he told ABS-CBN's Teleradyo. "Yung MECQ possible nang malift siya sa NCR, most likely mali-lift siya."
(Our trend the past week was positive, transmission is slowing. We’re actually optimistic. MECQ will most likely be lifted in NCR.)
"Ang maganda is kung mapatuloy nating mapababa yan, malapit na tayong maflatten yung curve."
(If we can continue this, we can almost flatten the curve.)
The virus epicenter, however, still needs to decrease its number of cases, David said.
"First step pa lang ang pag-flatten ng curve, hindi naman ibig sabihin pag flattened na tapos na eh. Kailangan pababain yung bilang ng kaso," he said.
(Flattening the curve is the first step, we need to lower the number of cases.)
David said the Philippines might reach 190,000 cases by the end of the month versus his earlier projection of more than 200,000 cases.
"Bumabagal siya pero talagang maaabot natin ang ganiyang numbers, sa nakikita namin parang mahirap iwasan. Inaasahan natin kung mapabagal natin even further, kung mas mabilis magflatten ang curve kesa sa projection namin, pwedeng mas kaunti pa talaga dyan," he said.
(It's slowing but we might reach those numbers, we can't avoid it. If it slows further, if the curve flattens faster than our projection, the number could be lower.)
"Once bumalik tayo sa GCQ wag tayong magpabaya maintain pa rin natin, intindihin natin na kung magpabaya tayo possible tayong ibalik ng MECQ. We have to work together, this is our collective effort."
(Once we go back to GCQ let's maintain our gains. Let's understand that we can revert to MECQ.)
The Philippines as of Sunday reported 129,913 cases of COVID-19, with 67,673 recoveries and 2,270 deaths.