Infectious diseases and clinical pharmacology expert Dr. Benjamin Co has been thankfully breaking down coronavirus numbers in his personal blog since the outbreak started. The perspective he provides is informative, and comforting in those who are craving for a clear picture of how we are faring against the virus. Dr. Co will share daily updates and analysis of the Department of Health reported numbers with ANCX.
The Department of Health has no updated information on the data drop and their COVID-19 Tracker site. Their last update? July 4, 2020.
It’s been three days and a difference of 7,000 patients within that span of time. We’re still at the fresh and late cases reporting system.
Today there are 993 fresh cases and 547 late to bring a total haul of 1,540 new confirmed cases for July 7, 2020.
Of the 1,540 reported cases, 747 are from “others,” 619 are from National Capital Region
(NCR), and 174 from Region VII.
Six deaths (three reported in June) and 201 recoveries round up the numbers of the day.
This brings the case fatality rate to a low of 2.73 percent and recovery rate sinks to 25.9 percent with more cases being reported today than recoveries.
According to the Department of Health, 34,178 are today’s total number of active cases (net of reported recoveries and deaths).
But let’s take a look at the information provided on the COVID19 Tracker as of July 4, 2020 on the health capacity of the country. Based on the data of the DoH, there are now 1,918 facilities with dedicated COVID and ICU beds. So far, if you look at the general trend, bed occupancy is less than 50 percent (41.9 percent). This, however, is for the whole Philippines.
When we concentrate on the two regions that are the epicenters in the Philippines, note how the data differs. In NCR, while there are 177 facilities available, as of July 4, 112 facilities have dedicated COVID and ICU beds versus 94 facilities with dedicated COVID and ICU beds last July 2, 2020.
Note that compared to the general bed occupancy in the country, NCR has 69.2 percent bed occupancy with 59 out of the 112 (54 percent) in the danger zone.
Broken down into the four districts in NCR, see the difference in data from July 2 (in black) versus July 4 (in red). In spite of the added health facilities, there is an increase in bed occupancy in the first district (Manila), followed by the fourth district. Most of them in the danger and warning zone.
The situation mirrors itself in Region VII, where the over-all bed occupancy rate is 65.7 percent but the majority of the hospitals are in the “safe zone.”
However, when broken down by province, the province of Cebu has 73 percent bed occupancy with 20 out of 47 hospitals in the danger zone.
When subdivided into cities, Cebu City has almost 80 percent bed occupancy and practically eight out of 13 hospitals in the danger zone.
According to DoH, there are now 57 licensed RT-PCR and 20 licensed Gene Expert labs in the country: a grand total of 77 testing facilities to date.
As of July 5, 2020, the Philippines has done almost 850,000 tests in over 783,000 individuals. The cumulative positive rate (total number of positive patients since the beginning of testing) is up at 7.4 percent with 67 of 71 laboratories submitting reports.
On July 5, out of 16,180 samples tested in 15,455 individuals, 2,403 tested positive. Giving a daily positive rate of 12.62 percent. A moderately high increase compared to the previous weeks where we ranged less than 8 to 10 percent.
This data correlates with the rise in the total number of positive cases reported in the past few days.
Based on the available data of the DoH, our doubling time is now 19.9 days with a seven-day average daily growth rate of 3.5 percent. We rank 104 out of 188 countries when measured by the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases per million people (430 infected/million).
We can only hope that the Health Agency has available data broken down per region soon.
With a little more than 170,000 cases overnight, the total number of coronavirus cases globally approaches 11.8 million. Total number of deaths reported yesterday was higher at more than 3,800 cases. Based on the seven-day average of cases, the world is on track at 12 million cases before the weekend.
The global case fatality rate is lower at 4.6 percent and recovery rate slightly lower at 57.4 percent because of the continued increase in cases.
Data from WorldOMeters.
The United States has broken the three million mark. The three top states in the US with the most number of cases are: Texas (+9,054), California (+6,891) and Florida (+6,336).
The case fatality rate in the US is now at 4.37 percent with 3,040,833 cases as of this report.
Brazil stays in second spot with more than 1.6 million cases and continues to report the highest death cases in the world with 656 deaths overnight. India which is in third placed with 720,346 cases had also the second highest number of fatalities overnight with 474 deaths.
The top 10 countries that had the highest new cases overnight were:
- USA – 50,586
- India – 22,510
- Brazil – 21,486
- South Africa – 8,971
- Russia – 6611
- Mexico – 4,683
- Saudi Arabia – 4,207
- Pakistan – 3,344
- Bangladesh – 3,201
- Colombia – 3,171
- Chile – 3,025
The Philippines is at 37th spot in the world in terms of number of total confirmed cases with 1,540 cases today. Indonesia is in 26th spot with 1,268 new cases. And our numbers are catching up with other countries.