Infectious diseases and clinical pharmacology expert Dr. Benjamin Co has been thankfully breaking down coronavirus numbers in his personal blog since the outbreak started. The perspective he provides is informative, and comforting in those who are craving for a clear picture of how we are faring against the virus. Dr. Co will share daily updates and analysis of the Department of Health reported numbers with ANCX.
The change in process with the Health Agency affected the numbers with the health department pouring in the late cases. USec. Rosario Vergiere also announced that beginning next week, the Department of Health (DoH) will do away with dividing the cases into “fresh” and “late.” Hopefully, with this new way of presenting, it will reflect more real-time data.
In the meantime, as of 4 P.M. today, the Health Agency reported 1,494 new confirmed cases (mostly late +1,091 and the remaining fresh +403).
Of the total new confirmed cases reported today, 614 are from National Capital Region (our largest number of cases for a single day), 567 from “others” (which in the breakdown below truly reflect “other” regions now), 236 from Region VII, and 12 repatriates.
Ten deaths and 380 recoveries today bring our case fatality rate down to 3.08 percent (1,290 deaths) and our recovery rates sink as well to 27.4 percent with the higher number of cases reported today. Our total confirmed cases stands now at 41,830.
The following regions reported fatalities: Region VII (5), NCR (3), and Region IX (2).
Today, the Health Agency reports the second highest number of cases reported in the country. A tad shy from yesterday’s 1,531 cases.
Based on the DoH data as of July 3, 2020, there are 27,983 active cases with 99.4 percent of them being mild (26,528 or 94.8 percent) or asymptomatic (1,291 or 4.6 percent). The serious cases—severe and critical—remain at 0.6 percent. Compared to yesterday, there are three fewer severe cases today, but one additional critical case.
All regions reported new confirmed cases today, with five cases being the least number for CAR and Region II. Three regions now report triple digit numbers: NCR (679 cases and three deaths), Region VII (236 cases and five deaths), and Region IVA (149 cases). Finally, all those classified under “others” are accounted for and it is not a pretty sight.
NCR had also two cities with triple digits: Quezon City (121 cases) and Manila (103 cases and 1 death).
Region VII had 236 cases broken down as follows: Cebu City 113 (with two deaths), Mandaue 48, Cebu Province 46 (and three deaths), Lapu-Lapu with 20, and Bohol with two. There were seven with no tagged residences.
Region IVA saw triple digits in the total as well today with 149 cases. Of these, 53 cases came from Rizal, 42 from Cavite, 36 from Laguna, 12 from Batangas, and five unknown.
The two deaths in Region IX came from Zamboanga City, that incidentally registered 18 cases today.
Other regions that registered >50 cases included: Region VIII (67), Region VI (66), and Region XI (56).
According to the Department of Health, there are now 55 that do RT-PCR and 20 licensed Gene Expert labs in the country.
Almost 800,000 samples have been processed by the testing facilities. On July 3, 2020, out of 17,129 samples tested in 16,177 individuals, 1,526 tested positive for a daily positive rate of 8.9 percent (lower than yesterday’s 9.2 percent).
The total number of positive cases reported the day before is a good predictor on the likely new confirmed cases the Health Agency will report the following day. After all, these two should correlate well. While there will be some discrepancies, these can be minor and may serve as differences in patients that get retested from a previous positive test.
The measure of success in winning the war? In spite of more tests being done, we should be getting more negatives (or the daily positive rate needs to keep dropping significantly). We cannot use as an excuse that we are getting more cases just because we’re testing. We should be testing to get more negative cases because this is the better parameter that the pandemic is under control.
With more than 200,000 new cases overnight and close to 6,000 new deaths, the global data at the opening of the third quarter is still on an upward trajectory. Countries that have been seeing massive gains in their effort at containing the virus are now seeing new cases with the reopening of their economies in various phases.
The global case fatality rate is lower at 4.73 percent and recovery rate at 56.7 percent.
Data from WorldOMeters.
The United States (+54,904), Brazil (+41,988) and India (+22,721) continued to contribute to almost 60 percent in new cases. The US broke its record highest number of new daily cases.
The seven-day moving average for the US is now at >48,000 cases/day. At this rate, it should breach three million cases in over the weekend. On the other hand, while there are increasing cases, the seven-day moving average for deaths is around 558 deaths/day.
The top three states in the US are Florida (+9,488), Texas (+7,343), and California (+4,509). While New York still has the most number of cases to date (420,744), New Jersey is now in fifth spot with the three top states displacing it from second position.
The United States now has 2,890,588 total cases with a case fatality rate of 4.57 percent.
Brazil stays in second spot with more than 1.54 million cases and continues to report the highest death cases in the world. Overnight they had 1,264 deaths. Their case fatality rate is at 4.1 percent.
The top 10 countries in the world with positive cases are in the table above. Mexico moves up one more notch, displacing Italy for the ninth spot. Based on the seven-day average cases of India, they will soon replace Russia in third in a day or two.
The top 10 countries that had the highest new cases overnight were:
- USA – 54,904
- Brazil – 41,988
- India – 22,721
- South Africa – 9,063
- Mexico – 6,741
- Russia – 6,718
- Saudi Arabia – 4,193
- Pakistan – 4,087
- Peru – 3,595
- Chile – 3,548
The Philippines stays at 39th spot in the world in terms of number of total confirmed cases with 373 people infected per million population. At the rate our numbers are climbing, we should overtake Portugal who is in 38th place in a few days.
Our doubling time is 28 days based on a seven-day average daily growth rate of 2.5 percent.
Tomorrow we break down the week that was.